A majority of Albertans support leaving Canada.
Claimed by: Asserted by some Alberta independence advocates
Updated: Updated August 2026: added Research Co. July polling on independence support (33%) and clarified that expectation of a future binding vote is not support for separation.
False: False as written according to the settled evidence. How we rate.
Short answer
Polling consistently shows the opposite, and support has fallen further in mid-2026. An Ipsos survey for Global News conducted May 28 to June 1, 2026 found only 19 percent of Albertans would vote yes on Question 10 to begin the legal process toward a binding separation referendum, with 72 percent choosing to remain in Canada. On a hypothetical binding leave-or-stay vote, support for leaving was 18 percent, down 10 points from January. A May 2026 Angus Reid survey had found 35 percent in favour of starting the separation process. A July 2026 Research Co. national survey found 33 percent of Alberta respondents would vote for Alberta to become its own country, 50 percent against, and 17 percent undecided; that same poll found half of Alberta respondents expected the October vote could eventually lead to a binding referendum, which measures expectation about process, not support for leaving. The Research Co. survey interviewed 1,002 adults nationwide; its ±3.1-point margin applies to the national sample, not necessarily to the smaller Alberta subsample. Support is real and concentrated in some regions and among some party voters, but a province-wide majority for leaving is not borne out by the evidence.
What the evidence shows
An Ipsos poll conducted May 28 to June 1, 2026 found 19 percent would vote to commence the legal process toward a binding separation referendum and 72 percent would vote to remain in Canada on Question 10; on a hypothetical binding leave vote, 18 percent would leave and 72 percent would stay.
A May 2026 Angus Reid poll found 60 percent would vote no to beginning the separation process and 35 percent yes, with stay support rising to 67 percent on a simpler question.
A Research Co. poll conducted July 20 to 22, 2026 found 33 percent of Alberta respondents would vote for Alberta to become its own country, 50 percent against, and 17 percent undecided; separately, 50 percent of Alberta respondents expected the October vote could lead to a binding referendum later, while 30 percent did not expect that outcome.