The 1980 National Energy Program cost Alberta tens of billions of dollars.
Claimed by: Commonly stated by Alberta independence advocates
Contested: Credible sources disagree, or the outcome depends on events that have not happened yet. How we rate.
Short answer
There is no dispute that the National Energy Program shifted oil revenue away from Alberta and fueled lasting western alienation. Opponents put Alberta's losses between 50 and 100 billion dollars. The reason this is contested rather than settled is that the same years brought a global recession, soaring interest rates, and a sharp fall in world oil prices, and economists disagree about how much of the damage was the NEP itself versus those external forces. So the grievance is real, but the specific dollar figure attributed to the program is genuinely debated.
What remains uncertain
Credible sources disagree, or the outcome depends on negotiations and decisions that have not happened yet. This review describes the dispute; it does not resolve it.
What the evidence shows
Opponents estimate Alberta's losses from the NEP at between 50 and 100 billion dollars, though analysts note a recession and an oil price crash also drove the losses.
Historical accounts describe the NEP increasing the federal share of oil revenue and damaging federal-provincial relations, while noting global economic conditions shifted around the same time.