Because of its oil, Alberta would hold the upper hand in separation negotiations.
Claimed by: Commonly stated by Alberta independence advocates
Contested: Credible sources disagree, or the outcome depends on events that have not happened yet. How we rate.
Summary
Alberta's oil is valuable, but leverage cuts both ways. Most export pipelines run through Canada, so a landlocked Alberta would depend on its neighbours for market access and could face tolls that capture much of its oil revenue. A small new state negotiating with a larger trading bloc over debt, currency, borders, and trade access tends to have the weaker hand. Supporters argue resource demand gives Alberta bargaining power, so the question is genuinely contested rather than settled in Alberta's favour.
Evidence
With key export pipelines running through Canada, Tombe notes a special toll on Alberta oil shipments is easy to imagine, capturing value from producers and the government.
Analysts describe an independent Alberta of fewer than five million people negotiating from a weak position over trade, currency, defence, borders, and citizenship.