Alberta has little influence over who governs Canada, because Ontario and Quebec together hold enough seats to decide federal elections and Alberta repeatedly ends up outside the governing party.
Claimed by: Western alienation argument made by Alberta independence advocates
Needs context: Accurate as written, but a key piece of context changes how it reads. How we rate.
Summary
The factual core of this is solid, but the sweeping conclusion needs context. Ontario and Quebec together hold 200 of the 343 seats in the House of Commons, a majority on their own, so a federal government can in principle be built without a single Alberta seat. Alberta has also voted overwhelmingly for one party while a different party formed government in 2015, 2019, 2021 and 2025, leaving the province largely off the governing benches in those years. Whether that adds up to 'little influence' is more variable than it first appears. Alberta held substantial cabinet weight under federal Conservative governments from 2006 to 2015, and it still elects 37 members of Parliament. So the structural point, that Central Canada can decide elections and Alberta has often been on the losing side recently, is accurate, while the broader claim of having almost no say overstates a picture that shifts with which party is in power.
Evidence
Ontario holds 122 seats and Quebec 78, a combined 200 of the 343 seats in the House of Commons, more than the 172 needed for a majority.
In the 2025 federal election the Liberals formed government while the Conservatives won all but a few of Alberta's 37 seats, repeating the pattern of 2015, 2019 and 2021.
Conservative candidates took 34 of Alberta's 37 seats with about 64 percent of the provincial vote in 2025, while the governing party drew its seats overwhelmingly from outside Alberta.