Albertans would be wealthier in an independent Alberta.
Stated by: Commonly stated by Alberta independence advocates
Summary
This is a forward-looking prediction, and the most detailed independent modelling cuts against it. Economist Trevor Tombe estimates separation would raise trade costs, lower productivity, and prompt out-migration, shrinking the economy by several percent and leaving Alberta poorer overall. Supporters point to high incomes and resource wealth. Because the outcome depends on choices and negotiations that have not happened, the claim is not settled, but the leading analysis points the other way.
Evidence
Trevor Tombe's modelling estimates an independent Alberta's economy would be about 6 percent smaller, with roughly 400,000 people leaving, concluding a separate Alberta would be a poorer Alberta.
A review of separatist economics notes plans rely on optimistic assumptions, omit major costs, and treat pension revenue as government revenue, which overstates the fiscal upside.
The Globe and Mail (myths of Alberta separatism) (opens in a new tab)